Monday 22 February 2010

How many points to stay up?

Last week the Watford Observer reported that Malky Mackay had said:

“52 points is everyone’s target in the division as it makes you safe. Everyone wants to get to that as quickly as possible and then you see where you go from there.”

It got me thinking... is he correct? In a previous post I looked across the last three seasons and had said 48 points was enough.

Now I’m no statto in the traditional football fan sense, but I do love a good statistical analysis to help prove a point. So I’ve gone back over the last 10 season of the Championship/First Division to get the points total for the teams in 22nd place, who were relegated, and the teams in 23rd place who managed to stay up after what was a tense final day of the season.

SEASON

22nd RELEGATED

23rd SAFE

2008-2009

46

51

2007-2008

52

53

2006-2007

42

49

2005-2006

42

50

2004-2005

50

50

2003-2004

51

51

2002-2003

46

50

2001-2002

49

49

2000-2001

48

49

1999-2000

46

49

AVERAGE

47.2 POINTS

50.1 POINTS

Looking at it from the 22nd place numbers, on average you'll need 48 points to stay up. You’ve needed as little as 43 point in 06-07 and 05-06, but as many as 53 points in 07-08.

It seems that Malky is looking at the 23rd place teams. On average the 23rd place team has gained 51 points. They've needed as many as 53 points, but as low as 49 points in 4 out of the last 10 seasons.

So statistically Malky is wrong, but 52 points seems to be a conservative points target to stay up.

As of 21st February 2010 – when Watford held 39 points - we only need another 13 points to get Malky's target. However, for almost total comfort of 54 points we still need 15 points... and 16 games to do it in - Easy!

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