Wednesday, 6 March 2013

How many points?

Come on own up. Who walked out of Vicarage Road on Tuesday night doing maths? "If we've won and Hull lost then they'd be on 65 and we'd be on 66 and....." and you drift off into a world of possibility and unknown.

The question isn't where are we now, but where could we be at the end of the season? Paul Dewen is a Watford fan over in Denver USA and he is quite the stat man.

He sent us this little analysis:

What do we need to do to finish in 2nd Place?

Over the last 10 seasons, here are the points totals for the team that finished second in the Championship:
-  Max = 92
-  Mean = 87
-  Min = 79

Watford are currently has 66 points and have 10 games remaining.  To hit the corresponding totals, Watford would need:
-  Max: 2.6 pts/game, or 9 wins
-  Mean: 2.1 pts/game, or 7 wins
-  Min: 1.3 pts/game, or 4 wins

So how do we become the champions of the Championship?

If you do the same maths for the teams finishing first in the Championship over the last 10 seasons:
-  Max = 106 - Watford cannot match this anymore
-  Mean = 93 -  Watford needs 2.7 pts/game, or 9 wins
-  Min = 81 - Watford needs 1.5 pts/game, or 5 wins

So is either 1st or 2nd this achievable?

Well, Watford's form over the last 10 games is 7W, 2D, 1L = 2.3 pts/game.  If we keep that up then we would (on the mean average over the last 10 years) finish in 2nd place and be promoted automatically

We've learnt in the last week that we can "drop points" and no one game in the coming 10 games is going to be the make or break of this season. There have been many of those over the season that meant we dropped points. However a lot could depend on our results against Hull, Cardiff, and Leicester.

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